Senda Gas Scenario

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Senda Gas
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Axpo Koexist
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Energy Law ("Mantelerlass")
Business as usual
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At a Glance Energy Mix Transition Challenges Costs

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Scenarios

Senda Gas
Senda Solar
Senda Wind
Senda Nuclear
Axpo Koexist
Axpo Aldi
Energy Law ("Mantelerlass")
Business as usual
Senda Diversification
Senda Renewables

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At a Glance Energy Mix Transition Challenges Costs

DRAFT, possibly subject to change

Imports in summer

Winter import at 5 TWh, but total import higher due to summer imports

Summer imports can be efficient

Cheap solar energy could be imported, good combination with flexible hydro

Energy Mix Winter

Production

Demand

Production

2025

Total generation 31.6 TWh

2050

Total generation 40.1 TWh

Demand

2025

Total demand 35.6 TWh

2050

Total demand 45.3 TWh

Pros and Cons

Pros:

Cons:

2050 Winter

Pros:

Cons:

Transition Winter

The energy mix as we transition to 2050

Export data

Demand

Import

Import atget exceeded

Wind

Hydro

Biomass

Gas

Geothermal

Nuclear

Fossil

2025 Winter

TWh

Demand

35.6

Generation

31.5

Deficit

Import

4.1

Import

4.1

Import atget exceeded

Generation

31.5

Storage reserve used

2.1

PV Roof

2.1

PV Alpine

0.1

PV Ground

Wind

0.1

Hydro

15.1

Run-of-River

6.3

Storage

8.8

Biomass

1.1

Biomass

1.1

CCS Biomass

Gas

Market-Gas

Reserve gas power plants

Geothermal

Nuclear

12.2

Nuclear

12.2

New nuclear

Fossil

0.9

Existing fossil fuel power plants

0.9

CCS Fossil Fuels

Hard coal

Challenges

Import target exceeded

The energy law sets a non-binding 5 TWh import target, which will be exceeded in 2028 - 2050.

Season

Winter Summer Year

The seasonal impact

Looking at winter, summer, and full year in an energy scenario reveals seasonal variations in demand (e.g., heating vs. cooling) and supply (e.g., solar availability), helping optimize resource use and ensure system resilience year-round.

Simulate conditions

Normal Monthly bad weather Import limitations viewer.extremeConditionsPicker.hydroRegulation2 viewer.extremeConditionsPicker.hydroRegulation3 viewer.extremeConditionsPicker.hydroRegulation4

Stress Test

In the stress test, we simulate supply under particularly adverse extreme situations. The following two situations are modeled:

Monthly bad weather: This examines a worst-case situation: How much production is lost if the worst possible weather conditions occur in each month. This is a monthly perspective to check whether a deficit could occur in any of the winter months. Details on the modeling can be found in the About section.
Import restrictions: This assumes that imports are limited. The availability of French nuclear energy is limited to 60%, gas availability in Europe to 80%, and the grid's import capacities to 40%. Other settings are possible in Expert Mode.

Simulate conditions

Normal Monthly bad weather Import limitations viewer.extremeConditionsPicker.hydroRegulation2 viewer.extremeConditionsPicker.hydroRegulation3 viewer.extremeConditionsPicker.hydroRegulation4

Stress Test

In the stress test, we simulate supply under particularly adverse extreme situations. The following two situations are modeled:

Monthly bad weather: This examines a worst-case situation: How much production is lost if the worst possible weather conditions occur in each month. This is a monthly perspective to check whether a deficit could occur in any of the winter months. Details on the modeling can be found in the About section.
Import restrictions: This assumes that imports are limited. The availability of French nuclear energy is limited to 60%, gas availability in Europe to 80%, and the grid's import capacities to 40%. Other settings are possible in Expert Mode.

How Resilient Is This Scenario? Put It to the Test!

The scenario above assumes normal weather and stable energy imports, but what happens when extreme conditions hit? A harsh winter or import limitations from the EU could impact production, increase demand, and even lead to power shortages. Stress-test your scenario under these challenging conditions and see how it holds up in the face of real-world uncertainties.

Costs

Total Costs, Revenues and Subsidies in CHF until 2050.

Total production costs

206 billion

Accumulated until 2050

Revenues

191 billion

Assuming an average power price of 75 CHF/MWn

Subsidies required

22 billion

Remaining costs not covered by revenues

Average cost

7.4 billion / year

The annual average of the total cost, 7.4 bn CHF per year, is less than 1% of the (estimated) Swiss GDP in 2024 (825 bn. CHF).

Levelized cost

We use Levelized costs of electricity (LCOE). Future costs may rise as cheaper plants are replaced. High demand and costly technologies like rooftop PV can further increase costs. See Expert Mode for details on technology costs.

2020s

2030s

2040s

Levelized cost (LCOE) ⌀ CHF/MWh

Levelized Costs of Electricity

All costs in the following section are Levelized Costs of Electricity (LCOE), a key metric for comparing energy sources. LCOE includes capital, operational, and fuel costs over a plant’s lifetime, offering a transparent view of electricity generation expenses. All values are real 2024.

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Senda Solar DRAFT, possibly subject to change

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