Energy Law ("Mantelerlass") Scenario

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Energy Law ("Mantelerlass")
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At a Glance Energy Mix Transition Challenges Costs

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Scenarios

Senda Gas
Senda Solar
Senda Wind
Senda Nuclear
Axpo Koexist
Axpo Aldi
Energy Law ("Mantelerlass")
Business as usual
Senda Diversification
Senda Renewables

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At a Glance Energy Mix Transition Challenges Costs

Targets of 35 TWh of renewable energy by 2035 and 45 TWh by 2050, plus 6 TWh of renewable winter electricity, of which 2 TWh hydropower

Roof-PV ramp up until 2035

Roof-PV ramp-up and hydro additions lower imports until 2035

Imports decrease, then increase

After 2035 imports rise as build-out slows and nuclear plants are decommissioned

7.5% increase in hydro

Hydro production is increased by 7.5% until 2050

Decomissioning end 2043

Nuclear plants run 60 years, decomissioning of Leibstadt in 2043

Energy Mix Winter

Production

Demand

Production

2025

Total generation 32.2 TWh

2050

Total generation 33.4 TWh

Demand

2025

Total demand 35.6 TWh

2050

Total demand 44.3 TWh

Pros and Cons

Pros:

Cons:

2050 Winter

Pros:

Cons:

Transition Winter

The energy mix as we transition to 2050

Export data

Demand

Import

Import atget exceeded

Wind

Hydro

Biomass

Geothermal

Nuclear

Fossil

2025 Winter

TWh

Demand

35.6

Generation

32.3

Deficit

Import

3.4

Import

3.4

Import atget exceeded

Generation

32.3

Storage reserve used

2.4

PV Roof

2.2

PV Alpine

0.2

PV Ground

Wind

0.1

Hydro

15.4

Run-of-River

6.4

Storage

9.1

Biomass

1.3

Biomass

1.3

CCS Biomass

Gas

Market-Gas

Reserve gas power plants

Geothermal

Nuclear

12.2

Nuclear

12.2

New nuclear

Fossil

0.9

Existing fossil fuel power plants

0.9

CCS Fossil Fuels

Hard coal

Challenges

Import target exceeded

The energy law sets a non-binding 5 TWh import target, which will be exceeded in 2040 - 2050.

High Import Dependency post 2045

Rising import needs after nuclear decomissioning require neighbor surplus and EU agreement

Build-out speed solar

Build-out speed of solar until 2035 is more than double the pace of record year 2023. Hard to achieve

High summer surplus in 2030s

Summer surplus rises from 9 to 23 TWh in 2035. Unclear how much of it can be exported.

Additional costs possible

If summer surplus cannot be exported, related revenues will be lost and overall energy bill for Switzerland will rise

Season

Winter Summer Year

The seasonal impact

Looking at winter, summer, and full year in an energy scenario reveals seasonal variations in demand (e.g., heating vs. cooling) and supply (e.g., solar availability), helping optimize resource use and ensure system resilience year-round.

Simulate conditions

Normal Monthly bad weather Import limitations viewer.extremeConditionsPicker.hydroRegulation2 viewer.extremeConditionsPicker.hydroRegulation3 viewer.extremeConditionsPicker.hydroRegulation4

Stress Test

In the stress test, we simulate supply under particularly adverse extreme situations. The following two situations are modeled:

Monthly bad weather: This examines a worst-case situation: How much production is lost if the worst possible weather conditions occur in each month. This is a monthly perspective to check whether a deficit could occur in any of the winter months. Details on the modeling can be found in the About section.
Import restrictions: This assumes that imports are limited. The availability of French nuclear energy is limited to 60%, gas availability in Europe to 80%, and the grid's import capacities to 40%. Other settings are possible in Expert Mode.

Simulate conditions

Normal Monthly bad weather Import limitations viewer.extremeConditionsPicker.hydroRegulation2 viewer.extremeConditionsPicker.hydroRegulation3 viewer.extremeConditionsPicker.hydroRegulation4

Stress Test

In the stress test, we simulate supply under particularly adverse extreme situations. The following two situations are modeled:

Monthly bad weather: This examines a worst-case situation: How much production is lost if the worst possible weather conditions occur in each month. This is a monthly perspective to check whether a deficit could occur in any of the winter months. Details on the modeling can be found in the About section.
Import restrictions: This assumes that imports are limited. The availability of French nuclear energy is limited to 60%, gas availability in Europe to 80%, and the grid's import capacities to 40%. Other settings are possible in Expert Mode.

How Resilient Is This Scenario? Put It to the Test!

The scenario above assumes normal weather and stable energy imports, but what happens when extreme conditions hit? A harsh winter or import limitations from the EU could impact production, increase demand, and even lead to power shortages. Stress-test your scenario under these challenging conditions and see how it holds up in the face of real-world uncertainties.

Costs

Total Costs, Revenues and Subsidies in CHF until 2050.

Total production costs

244 billion

Accumulated until 2050

Revenues

208 billion

Assuming an average power price of 75 CHF/MWn

Subsidies required

38 billion

Remaining costs not covered by revenues

Average cost

8.7 billion / year

The annual average of the total cost, 8.7 bn CHF per year, is less than 2% of the (estimated) Swiss GDP in 2024 (825 bn. CHF).

Levelized cost

We use Levelized costs of electricity (LCOE). Future costs may rise as cheaper plants are replaced. High demand and costly technologies like rooftop PV can further increase costs. See Expert Mode for details on technology costs.

2020s

2030s

2040s

Levelized cost (LCOE) ⌀ CHF/MWh

Levelized Costs of Electricity

All costs in the following section are Levelized Costs of Electricity (LCOE), a key metric for comparing energy sources. LCOE includes capital, operational, and fuel costs over a plant’s lifetime, offering a transparent view of electricity generation expenses. All values are real 2024.

About the scenario developer

Energy Law ("Mantelerlass")

The Mantelerlass is Switzerland’s overarching energy law, which sets the framework for the country’s energy policy. It aims to promote energy efficiency, expand renewable energy, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions while ensuring a reliable energy supply.

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