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New nuclear and gas plants aim to keep the current import-export balance

Nuclear
New nuclear and gas
New nuclear and gas plants keep import levels relatively constant
valve
Stepwise expansion of Gas
Gas power plants are added in years when existing nuclear plants decomission
Nuclear
Small nuclear starting 2040
Starting 2040 small nuclear reactors of 400 MW are added
energy_export
Imports constant
Scenario first results in stable winter imports. After 2040 they start declining
sun
Limited PV build-out
Comparably small build-out of rooftop PV: 500 MW per year

Energy Mix Winter

Production
Demand
Production
2026
Total generation 31.2 TWh
2050
Total generation 37.9 TWh
Demand
2026
Total demand 36.4 TWh
2050
Total demand 42 TWh

Pros and Cons
Pros:
Cons:

2050 Winter

Pros:
Cons:

Transition Winter

The energy mix as we transition to 2050
Export data
Demand
Import
Import atget exceeded
PV
Wind
Hydro
Biomass
Gas
Nuclear
Fossil
2026 Winter
TWh
Demand
36.4
Generation
31.1
Deficit
--
Import
5.2
Import
5
Import atget exceeded
0.2
Generation
31.1
Storage reserve used
--
PV
1.7
PV Roof
1.7
PV Alpine
--
PV Ground
--
Wind
0.1
Hydro
15
Run-of-River
6.3
Storage
8.8
Biomass
1.3
Biomass
1.3
CCS Biomass
--
Gas
--
Market-Gas
--
Reserve gas power plants
--
Geothermal
--
Nuclear
12.2
Nuclear
12.2
New nuclear
--
Fossil
0.8
Existing fossil fuel power plants
0.8
CCS Fossil Fuels
--
Hard coal
--

Challenges

warning
Import target exceeded
The energy law sets a non-binding 5 TWh import target, which will be exceeded in 2027 - 2041.
people
Public opinion
Public opinion needs to accept new nuclear plants
nuclear
Based on availability of new nuclear in 2040
Earliest possible addition of nuclear in PowerSwitcher is 2040. That is an ambituous timetable
sun
Lowering PV build-out
PV build-out is lower than current reality. It would have to be (actively?) lowered
Season

The seasonal impact

Looking at winter, summer, and full year in an energy scenario reveals seasonal variations in demand (e.g., heating vs. cooling) and supply (e.g., solar availability), helping optimize resource use and ensure system resilience year-round.

Simulate conditions

Stress Test

In the stress test, we simulate supply under particularly adverse extreme situations. The following two situations are modeled:

  1. Monthly bad weather: This examines a worst-case situation: How much production is lost if the worst possible weather conditions occur in each month. This is a monthly perspective to check whether a deficit could occur in any of the winter months. Details on the modeling can be found in the About section.

  2. Import restrictions: This assumes that imports are limited. The availability of French nuclear energy is limited to 60%, gas availability in Europe to 80%, and the grid's import capacities to 40%. Other settings are possible in Expert Mode.

Simulate conditions

Stress Test

In the stress test, we simulate supply under particularly adverse extreme situations. The following two situations are modeled:

  1. Monthly bad weather: This examines a worst-case situation: How much production is lost if the worst possible weather conditions occur in each month. This is a monthly perspective to check whether a deficit could occur in any of the winter months. Details on the modeling can be found in the About section.

  2. Import restrictions: This assumes that imports are limited. The availability of French nuclear energy is limited to 60%, gas availability in Europe to 80%, and the grid's import capacities to 40%. Other settings are possible in Expert Mode.

How Resilient Is This Scenario? Put It to the Test!

The scenario above assumes normal weather and stable energy imports, but what happens when extreme conditions hit? A harsh winter or import limitations from the EU could impact production, increase demand, and even lead to power shortages. Stress-test your scenario under these challenging conditions and see how it holds up in the face of real-world uncertainties.

Bad weather conditions

Costs

Total Costs, Revenues and Subsidies in CHF until 2050.
Total production costs
203 billion
Accumulated until 2050
Revenues
187 billion
Assuming an average power price of 75 CHF/MWn
Subsidies required
20 billion
Remaining costs not covered by revenues
Average cost
7.3 billion / year
The annual average of the total cost, 7.3 bn CHF per year, is less than 1% of the (estimated) Swiss GDP in 2024 (825 bn. CHF).
Levelized cost
We use Levelized costs of electricity (LCOE). Future costs may rise as cheaper plants are replaced. High demand and costly technologies like rooftop PV can further increase costs. See Expert Mode for details on technology costs.
2020s
2030s
2040s
Levelized cost (LCOE) ⌀ CHF/MWh

Levelized Costs of Electricity

All costs in the following section are Levelized Costs of Electricity (LCOE), a key metric for comparing energy sources. LCOE includes capital, operational, and fuel costs over a plant’s lifetime, offering a transparent view of electricity generation expenses. All values are real 2024.

About the scenario developer
Christian Wasserfallen (FDP)
Christian Wasserfallen (FDP)
Christian Wasserfallen, a member of the Swiss Free Democratic Party (FDP), is known for his pro-business stance on energy policy. He supports market-based solutions and technological innovation to meet Switzerland’s energy needs while ensuring economic competitiveness.
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Methodology reviewed by ETH Zürich
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