Business as usual Scenario

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Axpo Koexist
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Energy Law ("Mantelerlass")
Business as usual
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At a Glance Energy Mix Transition Challenges Costs

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Scenarios

Senda Gas
Senda Solar
Senda Wind
Senda Nuclear
Axpo Koexist
Axpo Aldi
Energy Law ("Mantelerlass")
Business as usual
Senda Diversification
Senda Renewables

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At a Glance Energy Mix Transition Challenges Costs

Without increased investments, winter imports will rise to unsustainable levels, making blackouts likely after the nuclear shutdown

PV addtions at current pace

Rooftop PV buildout at current speed

Slow change to current system

With slow changes and no controversial new plants, only imports are left to cover increasing demand and decreasing capacities

Demand rises over time

Electromobility and heat pumps will increase demand more than higher efficiency can offset

Winter-imports increase

Imports will fill in for the missing production in winter - as long as they can

Risk of blackouts increases

Once imports are maxed out the risk of blackouts rises strongly

Energy Mix Winter

Production

Demand

Production

2025

Total generation 32.2 TWh

2050

Total generation 27.2 TWh

Demand

2025

Total demand 36 TWh

2050

Total demand 45.5 TWh

Pros and Cons

Pros:

Cons:

2050 Winter

Pros:

Cons:

Transition Winter

The energy mix as we transition to 2050

Export data

Demand

Import

Import atget exceeded

Storage reserve used

Wind

Hydro

Biomass

Nuclear

Fossil

2025 Winter

TWh

Demand

Generation

32.2

Deficit

Import

3.8

Import

3.8

Import atget exceeded

Generation

32.2

Storage reserve used

2.9

PV Roof

2.9

PV Alpine

PV Ground

Wind

0.1

Hydro

14.9

Run-of-River

6.3

Storage

8.5

Biomass

1.2

Biomass

1.2

CCS Biomass

Gas

Market-Gas

Reserve gas power plants

Geothermal

Nuclear

12.2

Nuclear

12.2

New nuclear

Fossil

0.9

Existing fossil fuel power plants

0.9

CCS Fossil Fuels

Hard coal

Challenges

Import target exceeded

The energy law sets a non-binding 5 TWh import target, which will be exceeded in 2033 - 2050.

High import dependency

This scenario has the highest import dependency. Lots of power from EU will be needed.

No reliable backup

No backup will be available for bad weather conditions or if EU doesn't want to export

Blackouts likely, latest 2040s

Due to missing production facilities blackouts will become more and more likely

Blackouts costly

The costs of blackouts will outweigh the lower investments made

Season

Winter Summer Year

The seasonal impact

Looking at winter, summer, and full year in an energy scenario reveals seasonal variations in demand (e.g., heating vs. cooling) and supply (e.g., solar availability), helping optimize resource use and ensure system resilience year-round.

Simulate conditions

Normal Monthly bad weather Import limitations viewer.extremeConditionsPicker.hydroRegulation2 viewer.extremeConditionsPicker.hydroRegulation3 viewer.extremeConditionsPicker.hydroRegulation4

Stress Test

In the stress test, we simulate supply under particularly adverse extreme situations. The following two situations are modeled:

Monthly bad weather: This examines a worst-case situation: How much production is lost if the worst possible weather conditions occur in each month. This is a monthly perspective to check whether a deficit could occur in any of the winter months. Details on the modeling can be found in the About section.
Import restrictions: This assumes that imports are limited. The availability of French nuclear energy is limited to 60%, gas availability in Europe to 80%, and the grid's import capacities to 40%. Other settings are possible in Expert Mode.

Simulate conditions

Normal Monthly bad weather Import limitations viewer.extremeConditionsPicker.hydroRegulation2 viewer.extremeConditionsPicker.hydroRegulation3 viewer.extremeConditionsPicker.hydroRegulation4

Stress Test

In the stress test, we simulate supply under particularly adverse extreme situations. The following two situations are modeled:

Monthly bad weather: This examines a worst-case situation: How much production is lost if the worst possible weather conditions occur in each month. This is a monthly perspective to check whether a deficit could occur in any of the winter months. Details on the modeling can be found in the About section.
Import restrictions: This assumes that imports are limited. The availability of French nuclear energy is limited to 60%, gas availability in Europe to 80%, and the grid's import capacities to 40%. Other settings are possible in Expert Mode.

How Resilient Is This Scenario? Put It to the Test!

The scenario above assumes normal weather and stable energy imports, but what happens when extreme conditions hit? A harsh winter or import limitations from the EU could impact production, increase demand, and even lead to power shortages. Stress-test your scenario under these challenging conditions and see how it holds up in the face of real-world uncertainties.

Costs

Total Costs, Revenues and Subsidies in CHF until 2050.

Total production costs

236 billion

Accumulated until 2050

Revenues

198 billion

Assuming an average power price of 75 CHF/MWn

Subsidies required

32 billion

Remaining costs not covered by revenues

Average cost

8.4 billion / year

The annual average of the total cost, 8.4 bn CHF per year, is less than 2% of the (estimated) Swiss GDP in 2024 (825 bn. CHF).

Levelized cost

We use Levelized costs of electricity (LCOE). Future costs may rise as cheaper plants are replaced. High demand and costly technologies like rooftop PV can further increase costs. See Expert Mode for details on technology costs.

2020s

2030s

2040s

Levelized cost (LCOE) ⌀ CHF/MWh

Levelized Costs of Electricity

All costs in the following section are Levelized Costs of Electricity (LCOE), a key metric for comparing energy sources. LCOE includes capital, operational, and fuel costs over a plant’s lifetime, offering a transparent view of electricity generation expenses. All values are real 2024.

About the scenario developer

Axpo

Axpo is Switzerland's largest power producer and an international leader in energy trading as well as in the marketing of solar and wind power. Around 7,000 employees combine experience and expertise with a passion for innovation and the pursuit of ever better solutions. The "Business as Usual" scenario illustrates what would happen if no changes are made and the current course is maintained.

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