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Robust solar build-out and moderate development of other renewables. Green gas as winter-backup

sun
Solar and hydro as main technologies
Almost 90% of generation 2050 will be solar and hydro
renew
Hydrogen from solar surplus
Hydrogen is produced in summer to store energy for winter generation
valve
Hydrogen/gas as winter backup
In winter, natural gas or hydrogen can power gas turbines
sun
Solar build out
The solar capacity is increased seven-fold until 2050
sun
PV: Rooftop, ground-mounted + alpine
Solar build-out makes use of all PV options
energy_export
Low Import dependency
Import dependency decreases over time

Energy Mix Winter

Production
Demand
Production
2026
Total generation 33 TWh
2050
Total generation 41 TWh
Demand
2026
Total demand 36 TWh
2050
Total demand 42.5 TWh

Pros and Cons
Pros:
Cons:

2050 Winter

Pros:
Cons:

Transition Winter

The energy mix as we transition to 2050
Export data
Demand
Import
Import atget exceeded
PV
Wind
Hydro
Biomass
Gas
Nuclear
Fossil
2026 Winter
TWh
Demand
36
Generation
33.1
Deficit
--
Import
3
Import
3
Import atget exceeded
--
Generation
33.1
Storage reserve used
--
PV
3.2
PV Roof
2.7
PV Alpine
0.2
PV Ground
0.2
Wind
0.3
Hydro
15.1
Run-of-River
6.4
Storage
8.7
Biomass
1.4
Biomass
1.4
CCS Biomass
--
Gas
--
Market-Gas
--
Reserve gas power plants
--
Geothermal
--
Nuclear
12.2
Nuclear
12.2
New nuclear
--
Fossil
0.9
Existing fossil fuel power plants
0.9
CCS Fossil Fuels
--
Hard coal
--

Challenges

energy_export
Summer Surplus
If summer surplus cannot be exported, related revenues will be lost and overall energy bill for Switzerland will rise
tactic
Solar and hydro need winter addition
Gas power plants are necessary to secure winter supply
sun
Open field solar needs space
Current Swiss regulation strongly limits spaces for ground mounted solar
valve
Electricity surplus in Summer
Despite hydrogen production, the summer surplus might be too high to integrate into the system
Season

The seasonal impact

Looking at winter, summer, and full year in an energy scenario reveals seasonal variations in demand (e.g., heating vs. cooling) and supply (e.g., solar availability), helping optimize resource use and ensure system resilience year-round.

Simulate conditions

Stress Test

In the stress test, we simulate supply under particularly adverse extreme situations. The following two situations are modeled:

  1. Monthly bad weather: This examines a worst-case situation: How much production is lost if the worst possible weather conditions occur in each month. This is a monthly perspective to check whether a deficit could occur in any of the winter months. Details on the modeling can be found in the About section.

  2. Import restrictions: This assumes that imports are limited. The availability of French nuclear energy is limited to 60%, gas availability in Europe to 80%, and the grid's import capacities to 40%. Other settings are possible in Expert Mode.

Simulate conditions

Stress Test

In the stress test, we simulate supply under particularly adverse extreme situations. The following two situations are modeled:

  1. Monthly bad weather: This examines a worst-case situation: How much production is lost if the worst possible weather conditions occur in each month. This is a monthly perspective to check whether a deficit could occur in any of the winter months. Details on the modeling can be found in the About section.

  2. Import restrictions: This assumes that imports are limited. The availability of French nuclear energy is limited to 60%, gas availability in Europe to 80%, and the grid's import capacities to 40%. Other settings are possible in Expert Mode.

How Resilient Is This Scenario? Put It to the Test!

The scenario above assumes normal weather and stable energy imports, but what happens when extreme conditions hit? A harsh winter or import limitations from the EU could impact production, increase demand, and even lead to power shortages. Stress-test your scenario under these challenging conditions and see how it holds up in the face of real-world uncertainties.

Bad weather conditions

Costs

Total Costs, Revenues and Subsidies in CHF until 2050.
Total production costs
243 billion
Accumulated until 2050
Revenues
214 billion
Assuming an average power price of 75 CHF/MWn
Subsidies required
45 billion
Remaining costs not covered by revenues
Average cost
8.7 billion / year
The annual average of the total cost, 8.7 bn CHF per year, is less than 2% of the (estimated) Swiss GDP in 2024 (825 bn. CHF).
Levelized cost
We use Levelized costs of electricity (LCOE). Future costs may rise as cheaper plants are replaced. High demand and costly technologies like rooftop PV can further increase costs. See Expert Mode for details on technology costs.
2020s
2030s
2040s
Levelized cost (LCOE) ⌀ CHF/MWh

Levelized Costs of Electricity

All costs in the following section are Levelized Costs of Electricity (LCOE), a key metric for comparing energy sources. LCOE includes capital, operational, and fuel costs over a plant’s lifetime, offering a transparent view of electricity generation expenses. All values are real 2024.

About the scenario developer
Jörg Grossen
Jörg Grossen
Jörg Grossen ist der Präsident der Grünliberalen Partei (GLP) in der Schweiz, bekannt für pragmatische Lösungen zu Energie- und Klimafragen. Mit seinem Hintergrund als Ingenieur setzt er sich für Innovationen im Bereich der erneuerbaren Energien ein und für eine Balance zwischen ökologischer Nachhaltigkeit und wirtschaftlichem Wachstum.
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Methodology reviewed by ETH Zürich
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